Superforecasting is an audiobook by Philip Tetlock, narrated by Joel Richards. The unabridged Audible edition runs 9 hrs 45 mins.
Publisher’s Summary
From one of the world’s most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions.
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people – including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer – who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are “superforecasters”.
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future – whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life – and is destined to become a modern classic.
Audiobook Details
- Narrated by: Joel Richards
- Length: 9 hrs 45 mins
- Publisher: Audible Studios
- Release year: 2015
- Audible category: Business & Careers / Management & Leadership / Forecasting & Strategic Planning
Listener Ratings
Superforecasting holds an average listener rating of 4.4/5 from 4909 Audible ratings.
On Audible, ratings for this title break down into narration performance and story separately:
- Performance (narration): 4.5/5
- Story: 4.3/5
- 5-star ratings: 56% of all ratings
What Audible Listeners Are Saying
5/5 stars — “Improve your predictive skills”
This is a well written book about how to improve your predictive skills. It isn’t just about predicting a major political event, like what is the likelihood of a certain dictator being overthrown. Then reading a lot of news on the topic to estimate the probability of that happening (although collecting a lot of information does help in understanding the factors affecting the possible outcome). In the book, there are many examples of people making predictions about success/failure of industries, technologies, and products… and being completely off target because of their bias or lack of relevant facts. The book walks you through the process of predicting an outcome, researching and understanding the event better, applying a baseline probability, adjusting the probability based on the particular situation and any new information, and reviewing past predictions to determine whether it was accurate or not. This skill can be applied for anything — what is probability that the job candidate will be a good employee, what is probability of a profit in one year for this new product, or what is probability that the customer will default on the loan.— A. Yoshida, Audible listener
5/5 stars — “If you liked thinking fast/slow, this is better!”
Ok, so it’s very much like "Thinking Fast and Slow," but the research seems cleaner, the theories more well thought out, and the scope larger. Less like the sloppy anecdotal "Gladwell Pop Sci" that I’ve come to fear.<br/><br/>I was particularly impressed by his chapter about the Nazi wehrmacht for three reasons:<br/>1. I love military history and the writing was compelling.<br/>2. He was unapologetic writing about the accomplishments of the organization which have been so influential, even if we are disgusted by much of what the Nazi’s stood for and did.<br/>3. The "defense" at the end of the chapter did a great job of explaining why he chose that example, which demonstrated his point that in analyzing history or forecasting, one must be able to separate the attributes of events and look objectively.<br/><br/>All in all, it’s a solid pop-sci book that gets better as it develops and is a must read if you have read Black Swan or Thinking Fast and Slow to correct the errors of each and give a bigger context.<br/>— Max Osterhaus, Audible listener
5/5 stars — “Best book on the subect!”
Well-sourced, scientific approach, and evidence based conclusions. Should lead to fundamental changes in the IC.— Robert F., Audible listener
For full pricing and the 30-day Audible free trial offer, see the link on this page.
